A trip to Villa Park to watch Aston Villa v AZ Alkmaar in the Conference League last night gave me the opportunity to watch a team I've held in high regard against the team I support.
I've come away from the match with my appreciation for striker Vangelis Pavlidis enhanced. It's left me wondering what's AZ's plan for when Pavlidis inevitably moves on?
If there's one thing we know about AZ it's that they'll have all their ducks in a row. The successor to the Greek hitman will already be known. But that doesn't stop us having a look to find some potential replacements.
So. What data should I focus on to find the next Pavlidis?
When I think of Pavlidis in my minds eye I see a great finisher, somebody who gets lots of chances, a good dribbler who runs the channels well.
So the data I'm going to focus on is
• xg per 90 • shots per 90
• shots on target %
• touches in box per 90
• dribbles per 90
• successful dribbles %
• received long passes per 90
And where should we look?
AZ are happy to shop the Scandinavian market, across mainland Europe and domestically, indeed Pavlidis himself was bought in from Willem II. Let's look for a player already in The Netherlands, one from the Nordic leagues and one from the rest of Europe filtering out the Premier League, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A.
We'll be looking for players in their early 20's with potential to be bought, further developed and sold on for profit.
Potential domestic replacement
Nikolas Agrafiotis, 23 (Excelsior) 🇳🇱 🇷🇸 🇬🇷
The data - Agrafiotis comes out top of my Eredivisie Pavlidis metrics. He's very closely matched on the following metrics - 0.7xG per 90 (Pavlidis 0.72), 3.22 shots per 90 (Pavlidis 3.6), 5.02 touches in box per 90 (Pavlidis 6.39) and 2.32 received long passes per 90 (Pavlidis 2.3) Agrafiotis' dribbling metrics aren't quite as good as Pavlidis' but he's certainly the closest match to Pavlidis in the league. In fact, the only other striker to come under consideration was Sparta Rotterdam's Tobias Lauritsen but the Norwegian is slightly below Agrafiotis in the rankings and is three years his senior.
The story - Agrafiotis is a Dutch born, Serbian citizen. He spent his youth career at FC Den Bosch and the Vitesse. In 2020/21 Agrafiotis joined Dordrecht and started his career in senior football. He spent two seasons at Dordrecht before joining his current club Excelsior. Agrafiotis goal scoring record has took a big leap forward this season, to date he has five goals in eleven Eredivisie matches. Interestingly, according to both Wyscout and Transfermarkt, Agrafiotis' contract at Excelsior expires at the end of the 2023/24 season.
The video - Agrafiotis is approximately 6ft2, right footed but also very capable of finishes with his weaker foot. Agrafiotis is good in the air, an asset at set pieces both defensively and when attacking. Like Pavlidis, Agrafiotis is a threat in quick transition and shows for long channel balls, favouring the right side of the pitch. Agrafiotis is an aggressive, willing runner with good quality when in possession.
Potential replacement from Scandinavia
Faris Moumbagna, 23 (Bodo/Glimt) 🇨🇲
The data - Moumbagna has a total xG of 13.25 in the 2023 Elitserien. He scores well on touches in box per 90 and shot on target %. Like Agrafiotis, his dribbling data doesn't match up to Pavlidis'.
The story - Moumbagna began his footballing career in the United States before moving to Norway in 2020 when he signed for Kristiansund. He spent the 2021/22 season on loan at Danish club Sonderjyske and signed for his current club Bodo/Glimt ahead of the 2023 Eliteserien season. This season, Moumbagna has scored fifteen goals in twenty five league appearances, three in five in the Norwegian Cup and six in ten UEFA Conference League matches.
The video - Moumbagna is approximately 6ft and very left footed. Moumbagna has great acceleration over small distances and maintains speed over further. He is very good at finding space in the penalty area and capable of acrobatic finishes
Potential replacement from mainland Europe
Kevin Denkey, 22 (Cercle Brugge) 🇹🇬 🇫🇷
The data - Across the 2023/24 Belgian Jupiter Pro League Denkey has an xG per 90 of 0.66, 3.8 shots per 90 and 5.53 touches in the box per 90. 57.89% successful dribbles from 3.94 dribbles per game.
The story - Denkey came through youth football at Nimes, he transferred to Cercle Brugge 2021 for a fee of €2M. Denkey has seemingly improved with every season since his move with league goal scored record of two in thirteen (2020/21), six in twenty eight (2021/22), eleven in thirty eight (2022/23). This season he has scored ten goals in thirteen matches. He is the current top scorer in the Belgian top flight. Denkey is a Togo international and already has twenty three caps.
The video - Denkey looks to be just under 6ft and he's right footed. Like Moumbagna, Denkey is fast and his speed gets him away from defenders allowing him to get shots off. Denkey has great balance, creates space for himself with trickery in the box, has smart movement and an eye for a through ball.
Data taken from Wyscout
Contractual information from Transfermarkt