By Craig Bradley - follow me on X @Brad8926
We've waded through the January Transfer Window waters and as is often the case, on the terraces, in fan forums, dare I even suggest in club recruitment meetings many were demanding a new striker. The positional signing that gets people excited beyond any other. A shiny, new striker. Someone to put the ball in the back of the net. A finisher. A 20-goal-a season man. A number 9.
There is a pre-perceived notion that the player who plays in the centre of three forwards (4-3-3, 3-4-3 etc) is the goalscorer, or even one of the front two if playing a formation (3-5-2, 3-4-1-2 etc) with dual forwards, certainly if a lone forward (4-2-3-1 etc). The simplistic view is that this is where goals come from. Regardless of the number on the back of the players shirt, what we football followers refer to as ‘the 9’ is where our presumptions expect the most goals to come from.
But do these notions actually stand up? Are we looking in the right direction? Are we perhaps searching for something that isn’t readily available?
Of course there’s nuance to this conversation. Each team has different ‘9’ options. Some have forwards by committee and can readily rotate strikers. Some are reliant on one. Some play two up top.
Let’s have a look through recent EFL seasons and see what we can find out about 9’s. Do you need a great one to achieve promotion? How much success can be put down to a team’s number 9?
We’ll start in the Championship’s 2021/22 season.
Aleksandar Mitrovic’s 43 goals was a freak, you have to go back to Glenn Murray’s 2012/13 season to find anyone else who has hit 30 in the Championship.
Looking at the season overall we see that Mitrovic and Dominic Solanke were the only 9’s to score 20+ and both players achieved automatic promotion.
Of Huddersfield, Nottingham Forest,Sheffield United and Luton, the four playoff teams, three had 9’s as their teams top scorer but none reached the 20 goal milestone.
In mid-table Victor Gyokeres and Emil Riis stood out, scoring more than a quarter of their team’s total league goals.
Fourteen of all teams had a 9 as their top scorer.
Onto 2022/23…
In a shift from the 2021/22 season, neither automatically promoted sides had an out and out 9 as their top scorer. Nathan Tella scored his seventeen Burnley goals from a wide position and Sheffield United’s Iliman Ndiaye operated mainly off the main forward in a deeper role. Interestingly neither Tella nor Ndiaye scored more than ⅕ of their teams total goals.
Two of the playoff teams had a 9 as their top scorer with one of them, Victor Gyokeres of Coventry, once again standing out on the spreadsheet.
The division top scorer, Middlesbrough’s Chuba Akpom, like Ndiaye played predominantly in a more withdrawn forward role.
Just like 2021/22 fourteen teams had a 9 as their top scorer.
Current season up until 5.2.2024
The current Championship season sees a pronounced change in the data around number 9’s. Brandon Thomas-Asante is the top scoring 9 in the division yet he’s only joint 13th in the overall top scorers chart and eight teams have at least one player to have scored more than “BTA’s” current tally of nine.
In a big drop from the previous two seasons, only nine teams in the division have a 9 as their top scorer and at the time of writing only two of the current Top 10 (West Brom and Hull).
At least as far as the Championship goes, it’s clear that a goalscoring 9 isn’t imperative to success. But for some teams the statements raised earlier remain prevalent.
One such team is Sunderland …
Sunderland sit one point off the playoffs despite a torrid return from their number 9’s. With the caveat of them playing without a recognised 9 on occasions the quartet of Nazariy Rusyn, Mason Burstow, Luis Semedo and Eliezer Mayenda have only contributed to 9% of their teams goals between. More worryingly, their profile doesn’t suggest that they contribute in other areas of the main forwards role. They aren’t a focal point for their team. If they aren’t scoring what are they doing? Surely Sunderland should’ve focused on this area in the transfer market? Of course, the January market is a difficult time to strike deals but there is value out there if you look in the right places. For example, Norwich brought in Sydney van Hooijdonk who would’ve been an immediate upgrade on Sunderland’s options. Although their transfer strategy in many ways is commendable, turning a blind eye to such an obvious requirement could be the difference between a playoff place or missing out.
Will we see similar trends lower down the EFL?
League One 2021/22
The first thing that stands out is that in 2021/22’s League One, eighteen team’s had a 9 as their top scorer - four more than in the same season’s Championship.
From the top six teams, Sunderland’s Ross Stewart and Rotherham’s Michael Smith were pivotal in their team’s respective promotions.
Morecambe almost certainly would’ve been relegated without the goals of Cole Stockton.
League One 2022/23
In last season’s League One, sixteen team’s had a 9 as their top scorer, two more than the equivalent season in the Championship.
Five of the division’s Top 6 had a 9 as their main goal threat. Interestingly, despite being their top goalscorer, Ryan Hardie of champions Plymouth Argyle only scored 16% of his team’s goals with a wide spread of goals amongst the rest of the squad. Can we take something from this?
Ipswich have adapted superbly to the Championship without the need of a goalscoring number 9 and Argyle have performed fine and managed to keep the relegation zone at arm's length all season long.
Current season up until 5.2.2024
Just eleven team’s with a 9 as top scorer - a drop of five from 2022/23.
But…we need to turn away from the overall discourse for a moment to shed light on a player. Those with eagle eyes amongst you will have noticed the prominence of Alfie May in the data for each of the last three seasons.
May has gone 35% - 44.5% - 37% for the percentage of team goals he’s contributed. A total of 23 in 2021/22, 20 in 2022/23 and 16 in this current season.
The diminutive forward could join a list that contains the likes of Grant Holt and Jordan Rhodes as players to have had 20+ goal seasons in three consecutive seasons. May requires four more before season end to achieve the feat. Unbelievably, May has hit these numbers whilst playing for Cheltenham who finished 2021/22 in 15th place and 2022/23 in 16th and this season Charlton currently sit 19th - Michael Appleton deemed it appropriate to utilise May in a wide role at times this season making May’s goal rate even more remarkable. May deserves to be talked about as an EFL cult icon. Surely only his stature has prevented clubs in the Championship taking a chance on him. I’ll be cheering him on to four more goals.
League Two 2021/22
League Two 2022/23
Current season up until 5.2.2024
Contrary to the Championship, the increase in prominence of goalscoring 9’s is evident. Just five team’s don’t have recognised 9’s as their team top scorer.
The biggest success story amongst the upturn is that of Macauley Langstaff who has seamlessly adapted to League Football. Only Brandon Thomas-Asante and now Ali Al-Hamadi have taken the significant two division jump up to the Championship from League Two. Which League will Langstaff play in next season? Could be either League One or Two with Notts County a Championship side could take a punt on him.
Of course, within this post there’s nuance. There could be players that you deem a 9 where I haven’t. There’s something to take from that - Before you shout from the stands or bang on the keyboard that whoever you support needs a new 9 take a moment. What profile does the 9 at your club need to be? In some cases goals may be the be all and end all, in others it shouldn’t even be up for consideration.