It's that time of the year again. Anticipation is increasing. We're seven days out from the start of the 2023/24 EFL season.
EFL content creators are publishing their predictions. I'm consuming lots. But I want to get my thoughts out in the public domain before I get overly influenced.
Last season, my pre season predictions proved to be a mixed bag. Some couldn't have gone better, Burnley romped away with the Championship title. Crawley definitely didn't do the same in League Two.
Anyway. Here's my 1-24's for this seasons three EFL leagues.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
Sunderland
Southampton
Leicester
Leeds
West Bromwich Albion
Swansea
Stoke
Millwall
Coventry
Norwich
Preston
Watford
Hull
Plymouth Argyle
Bristol City
Blackburn
Cardiff
Birmingham
Huddersfield
Rotherham
Sheffield Wednesday
QPR
I've more doubts than usual about the three relegated sides from the Premier League. I don't think Southampton's talent pool is quite as deep as most seem to believe. But they've got a some assets that are gonna make the club a pretty penny, they could make £100m just off Romeo Lavia and James Ward-Prowse if rumoured transfers come to fruition. Their squad could look very different by the end of the window. I think it would be in their best interests to utilise Championship ready players Che Adams, Adam Arsmtrong and Nathan Tella as their squad adapts to Russ Martin's ultra possession style.
At Leicester, I need to see what Enzo Maresca is all about before I blindly buy into him being the next wonder coach off the conveyor belt. Another team that could look very different after all the transfer dealings are over with. They've some players who are beyond this division in terms of ability. I'm thinking James Justin and Kieran Dewsbury-Hall in particular. But the squad is terribly unbalanced as things stand and until I see more with my own eyes I can't get too excited about them.
I've found Leeds difficult to place. With many a player departing on loan due to clauses in their contracts enabling to escape playing in England's second tier. It could be a case that the recent takeover has come just in time for them to get their shit together.
But if truth be told, I think the Championship looks a bit of a mess currently. I'd like to have opposed the three already mentioned more strongly but there isn't many teams in the I'm confident enough to get on board with.
I've got Middlesbrough as Champions. Yet even with these, I'm not massively impressed with their incomings to date and I make my pick with the hope that replacements for Ryan Giles and Cameron Archer are yet to arrive at the Riverside. I'm putting a lot of faith in Michael Carrick's managing career continuing on it's current trajectory.
I've got Ipswich getting promoted as runners-up for the second season in a row. I think they are a bit of a freak. A lot of what seen them look so ultra-impressive in League One is transferable to the Championship. They are a supremely well oiled machine, greater than the sum of their parts. With next to no changes at the club from last season to this, I think they can take advantage of what I think is a weak division and achieve back to back promotions.
I've got Sunderland as my other playoff club. Despite losing star loanee Amad Diallo I can't see a reason why they can't replicate what they achieved last season. I don't see a reason for a team that finished below them last season coming past them this. They are young and hungry but have enough experience and know how.
From the chasing pack I've got West Brom as best of the rest. They'd have made the playoffs last season had they had not wasted time with Steve Bruce starting the season as manager before his inevitable sacking. I like the Michael Duff appointment at Swansea and think the squad already looks like one he can get straight to work with without much disruption. I'm wary that my Coventry pick could come back to haunt me. I've massive respect for Mark Robins, I just think the Gyokeres departure could be too much for them to replicate last seasons finish. I don't see much cause for optimism at Norwich and Watford after poor seasons for both last time around.
At the bottom of the table I see Plymouth surviving comfortably. With a change of system implemented during the off season, Stephen Schumacher will again show that he's a high calibre manager. I've got QPR finsihing bottom. When you play an ultra extreme style of football a la Ainsworth I think you have the possibility to turn things in your favour even if the team lacks perceived ability. But for it to happen everyone needs to be on board, from on the pitch to in the stands and the boardroom. I don't think that's happening at Loftus Road. there's too many opposing voices already and I think that means the season ends with a relegation. I've got Sheffield Wednesday joining them. I don't think I can recall a promotion high fizzling out so quickly (although city rivals United aren't far behind) and it's hard to get my head around what has played out at Hillsborough since the playoff final. I had to toss a coin to pick my third relegated team from Huddersfield and Rotherham. It landed on the heads of Huddersfield surviving.
LEAGUE ONE
Charlton
Bolton
Portsmouth
Peterborough
Derby
Bristol Rovers
Blackpool
Lincoln
Wycombe
Barnsley
Oxford
Reading
Burton
Fleetwood
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Cheltenham
Port Vale
Stevanage
Northampton
Wigan
Shrewsbury
Cambridge
Carlisle
I'm fully on board with whatever is taking place at Charlton. They've added some of my favourite lower league players Alfie May, Terry Taylor and Panutche Camara to an already decent squad. With the league not likely to be at level of what Plymouth, Ipswich and Wednesday elevated it to last season, I think Charlton can improve massively on last season and that the title this time around.
I've long been a fan of Ian Evatt. I like the cut of his jib, mainly because I think he backs it up. Bolton's ceiling is high in my opinion. What looked to be big losses of departing loanees James Trafford and Conor Bradley have been addressed early in the transfer window. They're my runners up.
In third I have Pompey. I rate their transfer activity highly, particularly the signing of Regan Poole from Lincoln. It's critical for them and for my predicition that they hold onto Colby Bishop.
I've Bristol Rovers taking a big leap forward this season and have them as a dark horse for the playoffs. They are an unpopular team. They make unpopular signings. And they are mainly unapologetic about it. Whether that sits right with you or not I think it can take a team places, adopting an us against the world mentality.
Two other teams I like the look of are Lincoln and Burton. I considered placing both higher. but I thought one outlandish pick in Bristol Rovers was enough. I wouldn't be at all shocked if Lincoln and Burton come higher than I've ended up predicting.
LEAGUE TWO
Stockport
Notts County
Wrexham
Bradford
Salford
Gillingham
Doncaster
Mansfield
MK Dons
Walsall
Grimsby
Colchester
Barrow
Swindon
Crewe
Harrogate
AFC Wimbledon
Tranmere
Sutton
Morecambe
Accrington
Forest Green
Newport
Crawley
The introduction of National League heavyweights Wrexham and Notts County means, for me, that Stockport have gone under the radar. They were the best team in League Two for a lot of last season and but for a staggeringly slow start would've comfortably achieved automatic promotion. I think their squad is primed to win the title this season and now have the personnel to mix things and potentially move away from their familair 3-5-2. They could quite conceivably play 3-4-3, even 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1. The signings of Nick Powell in particular but also Louis Barry and Ibou Touray are incomings that make me stand up and take notice. With a squad that already consists of some of my favouites in Kyle Knoyle, Ryan Rydel and Will Collar, Stockport League Two Champions is the prediction I'm most bullish about across all three divisions.
Enjoy 2023/24. Up the EFL.