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Fan Expectation
Villa fans cover a wide range of expectations. At the top end of the spectrum, there’s some who yearn desperately (and therefore expect) to get back into European competition, our last foray into Europe was a 4-3 aggregate defeat to Rapid Vienna in the 2010/11 Europa League qualifying round. At the lower end are those who remember more clearly that it was only 2019 when we managed to claw our way out of the Championship with a miraculous end of season run culminating in the playoff final victory against Derby.
Since returning to the Premier league Villa finishing positions read 17-11-14. Staying up on the final day with 35 points in the first season back was followed by a twenty point improvement in 2020/21 but then a ten point decline in 2021/22.
I write this brief history to show just how much improvement in terms of points Villa will have to make to contend for a European finish this season. If for the sake of argument we say 60 points is needed to contend for European qualification then we’ll need to find an extra fifteen points this campaign, not easy to achieve in my opinion.
In conclusion, I’d range the fans expectation from, top end, 6th or 7th (in other words, challenging for Europe) to bottom end a top half finish and that is where I place my own belief.
Of course, hope and expectation are two entirely different things.
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Manager
Steven Gerrard took over from Dean Smith in November of last season with Villa sitting in 13th place in the table at the time. You may be thinking to yourself, Villa ended up finishing 14th so he can’t have been that successful. That’s not the case for me, Villa were dropping like a stone towards the relegation zone under Dean Smith who lost his final five games and for me the need for change was obvious. Gerrard did a good job of steadying the ship and although the season petered out, relegation never looked on the cards after his appointment.
I love how Gerrard comes across in the media. He doesn’t sugarcoat anything , he doesn’t patronise the fans. If I’ve watched a bad performance at Villa Park, when I’m driving back down the M5 to Plymouth I’m listening to him say it was a bad performance. He’s doesn’t try to pull the wool over fans eyes by telling them different to what we’ve watched. I’ve a lot of time for that.
The biggest asset Gerrard has given Villa since is that his appointment has immediately raised the profile of the club around the world. In our current position in the pecking order, we simply don’t sign players of the ilk of Phillips Coutinho, Diego Carlos & Boubacar Kamara if Gerrard isn’t our manager.
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Tactics
It’s really difficult to definitively say what our tactics will be this season. When Gerrard took over we deployed a 4-3-2-1 system with two No10’s but it’s increasingly looking like that was the thought process of recently departed Mike Beale who has moved to QPR and has implemented the same system there.
During pre season Villa have gone mainly with a 4-3-3 where Bailey and Coutinho have played inverted on the flanks but not as 10’s or with a 4-4-2 diamond with Buendia at the tip. We’ve also seen 4-2-3-1 at times. We’re blessed in terms of having players that fit all these systems so it really is a wait and see for how we set up on opening day away at Bournemouth.
One thing that doesn’t change no matter what the system is that Gerrard loves getting attacking output from the full backs, they play high and they play wide and that never alters.
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Squad
Goalkeepers
Emi Martinez. Undisputed number 1. For me, there’s only Ederson, Allison and Edouard Mendy better than him in the league. The best goalkeeper I’ve seen in my time supporting the club.
Robin Olsen. Signed permanently from Roma following a loan last season. Perfectly capable back up, has played well when featured throughout pre season.
Jed Steer. Back at club following a loan at Luton last season. The playoff semi final hero starts the season injured.
Viljami Sinisalo goes on a season long loan to Burton meaning whilst Steer is unavailable third choice Goalkeeper will be one of two youngsters Filip Marschall or Oliwier Zych.
Right Backs
Matty Cash. Player of the season by a long way in 2021/22. The ‘Polish Cafu’ has taken his game to another level since Gerrard’s appointment and the system gets the very best out of him.
Ashley Young. Signed a new one year contract at the club and becomes club captain.
Kaine Kesler-Hayden. Has shone bright during pre season and looks a star in the making. Young signing a new deal allows him the opportunity to go out on loan for the season, I hope to a Championship club. QPR makes a lot of sense stylistically and because of their need in that position.
Frederic Guilbert. Had a successful loan at Strasbourg and has been briefly looked at by Gerrard in pre season but more recently has been training with the under 23’s and a move looks to be on the cards for him as he enter the final year of his Villa contract.
Left Backs
Lucas Digne. Begins his first full season at the club after arriving in January. Another who the system is perfect for, a high quality operator.
Ludwig Augustinsson. New arrival from Seville to be back up at left back.
Ben Chrisene. The arrival of Augustinsson means Chrisene will probably get a loan this season. Highly thought of, I see him going to League 2 for what will be his first loan.
Centre Backs
What is certain is that Diego Carlos will be first choice. Already established himself as a fan favourite during pre season, he oozes charisma. He’s clearly made an impression off the pitch also as he has been made joint vice-captain alongside Emi Martinez.
Carlos’ partner will be one of Tyrone Mings, Callum Chambers or Ezri Konsa.
In my opinion Chambers should be next to Carlos. I never appreciated just how good a footballer Chambers was until I seen him in a Villa shirt. Perfectly fine defensively, I have him first choice based on him being better than Konsa with distribution and ball progression. That’s not a slight on Konsa, his form dropped a notch last season but he’s a favourite of mine and I’m glad to see him recover from the injury he suffered at the end of last season quicker than expected. That brings me onto Tyrone Mings, recently removed as captain ahead of the new season, never has a player split opinion of Villa fans so much to my memory. For me, he’s been a great servant to the club and a massive part of our journey. However I think he’s a good lower table Premier League player but that is his ceiling. If we have any ambition to move up a notch then we simply have to move on from him.
Also around the first team squad we have massively impressive youngster Josh Feeney. His arrival on the scene means that Kourtney Hause has become surplus to requirements. Another player who has never let the club down, I hope he finds a good move to the Championship. Would fit like a glove at West Brom in my opinion.
Defensive Midfield
Boubakar Kamara starts in this role, free transfer signing from Marseille when a host of Champions League clubs were in for him. A statement signing from the club. His tenaciousness and range of passing has stood out in pre season.
Douglas Luiz. I’ll be honest here, I’m not a fan. I’m just not sure what he’s great at. Often caught ahead of the ball positionally, his passing is fine but limited, athletically not imposing. He’s been played as an 8 during pre season but for me he’s another player who isn’t quite good enough for where the club aspire to get to. He’s entering the final year of his contract and talks are in place for him to renew. Personally, I’d be happy to try and get a fee for him and move on.
Marvellous Nakamba. Fan favourite. Massively limited technically but as tenacious as they come. There’s definitely a role for him in the squad for when it comes to closing down matches in the latter stages of games. Don’t expect him to get many starts.
Tim Iroegbunam. Youngster who has made a massive impact since joining in with the first team. He has a massive future, I’m sure of it. I think where he plays this season depends a lot on what happens with Douglas Luiz.
Centre Midfield
John McGinn. New captain for the 2022/23 season. Bags of energy. A class professional. My only concern is that Gerrard’s system last season probably meant we didn’t see the best of him but the boss clearly likes him so I expect him to be a big player this time around.
Jacob Ramsey. Burst onto the scene last season where he improved both technically and physically. Has a tendency to be quiet for long spells in games before having great periods. Would love to see him be able to play at his best for longer periods and that’s what he needs to take his game to the next level.
Morgan Sanson is probably next in line here. He’s had a real stop start Villa career. Never bad enough to moan about but never good enough to convince he should be starting either.
Carney Chukwuemeka. Highly talented youngster entering the final year of his contract and is refusing to sign a new deal. Talk as been around for a while that he is off at the end of his contract. I can see both side to the argument between him and the club. He’s probably seen the career progression that Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham achieved by going to the Bundesliga and that move makes a lot of sense for the player in my opinion. That said, It’s difficult to see where and how Villa could’ve given him more game time as he’s found himself in direct competition with Jacob Ramsey who had a breakout season.
Finn Azaz is already out on loan at Argyle. I expect Aaron Ramsey will get a League 1 loan also, maybe another youngster in Tommi O’Reilly too.
Wide Fowards/Attacking Midfield
Phillipe Coutinho is the star name here. Never really knew what we were gonna get in terms of ability retained and fitness when he first joined but he’s just a joy to watch. Will play from the left, cutting inside, allowing Digne to get into the final third of the pitch.
Leon Bailey. Burst on the scene with a cameo at home to Everton at the start of last season but struggled terribly with injuries and fitness afterwards which meant that we never got to see anything like the best of him. Has been Villa best player during pre season and has scored 3 goals in 5 matches and looked a constant threat. Like I said earlier, it’s difficult to see what system we start the season with but Bailey has probably forced his way into the starting XI, he’ll be massively unlucky if he hasn’t.
Emi Buendia. My favourite player at the club. Creaitive and tenacious in equal measure. It looks like Gerrard doesn’t want him and Coutinho on the pitch at the same time and unfortunately for Buendia his least effective performances have come when he’s started matches. A trend started to appear at the back end of last season where Coutinho started to get replaced by Buendia at around the 70th minute mark and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend continue.
Anwar El Ghazi and Bertrand Traore are still with the squad but both are training with the under 23’s and look to be surplus to requirements. Jadon Philagene (no longer Bidace) has joined Cardiff on loan and Louie Barry likewise but to MK Dons.
Strikers
Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings are the main two here. Ings put up some impressive numbers under the radar last season and is a clever operator. The pressure is on Watkins in my opinion, his touch has been poor the whole of last season and whilst you can’t fault his endeavour I’m quickly starting to develop similar thoughts as to what I mentioned about Mings. I just don’t think he’s good enough to take us to the next level.
Favourite of mine, Cameron Archer is breathing down the necks of Watkins and Ings, I don’t think a decision will be made on whether he spends the season with Villa or out on loan will be made until late in the window.
Keinan Davis is the other forward option, another player I adore but reluctantly I think now is the time to sell him. Following his highly impressive loan at Forest last season I think he’s at peak market value. I don’t see the point of sending him out on loan again, we know all we need to know about him.
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In conclusion I think we’re still just short of competing for a European place. We probably need an elite midfielder and for one of the current forwards to step up a notch. When I look at the clubs that finished around us last season I can see potential to bunny hop above Leicester, Brighton, Wolves Newcastle, Palace and Brentford which leaves me with an optimistic prediction of 8th, I’d be disppointed with anything less than 10th.
On a personal level, it’s another season of following our great club, travelling up and down the motorway with my son and the Cornwall Lions Supporters club where I’m proud to be a new member of the committee. I cannot wait to be back at Villa Park.
Enjoy the journey. Up The Villa.
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